Election day is tomorrow, so my blog will probably be much less political in a few days. Thanks for putting up with my obsession for the last few months.
Moving on… because I like to make bold and possibly embarrassing statements from time to time, I’m now going to predict the outcome of the election.
In my opinion the polls this year are skewed in Obama’s favor by about 7-10 points. There are various reasons for this, but the main one I keep coming back to is that things just haven’t changed that much from 2004. I just don’t believe that the extra voter registrations on the Democratic side will translate into votes.
Using my low estimate of 7 points, I created a map with my adjusted results at http://www.realclearpolitics.com (go there to make your own.) And here it is:
If I’m right, McCain will squeak out a win. If not… well… America survived Jimmy Carter. So, we’ll probably be okay. I hope.
Take the time to inform yourself on the candidates tonight, then get out and vote tomorrow. I wish us all luck that we make the right choice.